A couple of reports released this week delivered some good news and some bad news to homeowners in Florida. Admittedly, mortgage delinquency rates and home value statistics haven’t been anything to celebrate for a while now, but there may be a glimmer of hope.
In the “good news” category: You’re not alone if you’re 60 or even 90 days past due on your mortgage, especially in Florida.
In the “bad news” category: Florida’s delinquency rate of 15.02 percent was second only to Nevada’s 15.86 percent rate.
A national credit reporting bureau stated that the national mortgage delinquency (60 days past due) rate was 6.67 percent for second quarter 2010 — down just one tenth of a point from first quarter.
The rate of “later-stage” (90 days or more) delinquencies — the rate that is often used in foreclosure forecasting — decreased in 64 percent of the metro areas in the study. First quarter 2010 saw a decline in only 45 percent. In addition, there was a marked decline in the number of 120-day delinquencies nationwide.
The report included some moderately rosy predictions for the rest of the year, including a prediction that the 60-day delinquency rate will continue to drop, albeit not by much. The forecast, the authors noted, is based on “various economic assumptions” — assumptions that include gradual improvements in both real estate values and unemployment.
And that’s where the two reports diverge.
That second report, comparing home sales and values and produced by an online real estate marketplace, painted a less optimistic picture. Nationwide, foreclosures reached “a new peak,” with about one in every 1,000 homes in foreclosure. Also declining were “foreclosure re-sales,” defined as homes sold within 12 months following foreclosure.
What good news there may be is not for Florida: Home values here (and in Nevada) continue to decline. Since June 2009, values have fallen 11.2 percent statewide, 13.8 percent in Orlando, and 15.2 percent in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale. States like California that have offered state and federal tax credits to some homebuyers actually saw home values increase. Florida’s problems can be traced back to excess supply.
Analysts say that the declines may slow by 2011, but they do not predict an upturn any time soon for South Florida. In the end, while the forecasts differ, the reports paint equally grim pictures of the Florida housing market.
- eCredit Daily “Mortgage Delinquencies Still High at 6.07% in Q2: TransUnion” 8/17/10
- Reverse Mortgage Daily “Home Values Continue to Decline Across US Says Zillow” 8/17/10